BellaOnline Forums News and Politics Public Health Flu Vaccine 44% Effective This Year

Some of you are probably already aware that this years flu season (2007-2008) in the U.S. has been the worst in 10 years! Infection rates as well as complications were higher than the norm.

According to the CDC, each year a new flu vaccine is developed using 3 strains of flu virus that are expected to cause the most trouble. Sometimes the scientists don't get it quite right, and the vaccine isn't very effective. This year 2 of the 3 strains were the wrong ones.

Therefore, this vaccine was only 44% effective, much lower than the usual 70-90% effectiveness.

For a technical report on issues with the vaccine, visit CDC report

Anita,

I can't get through that whole technical article.. if you did, perhaps you have the answer to this,

But I would wonder if that is even a high estimate because...

-- Not every case of flu among those vaxxed is reported
-- Many of those vaxxed may not have gotten the flu anyway, so the vax may not have even protected them (my family didn't have the vax -- we can't have flu shots for medical reasons, and none of us got the flu!)

Do you know if those issues are already factored in their estimate?

Nicki

Nicki,
The estimate was developed using data from the town of Marshfield, Wisconsin. Participation in the study was voluntary, and detailed data about illness, vaccination, and lifestyle was collected from those enrolled.

Because of this, my answer to your question is yes, those items were factored in, at least as far as the sample population is concerned. However, I see two additional issues with the estimate. The first is that the participants were self-selected so the study was not truly random. The second is whether or not the town is sufficiently representative of the rest of the U.S. to allow generalization of the 44% rate.

I suspect that the success rate of the vaccine was actually lower since 2 out of 3 strains in the vaccine were not the "right" ones (i.e., the strains that actually spread during flu season). Scientists have to guess each year and apparently this year they guessed wrong. I remember the "swine flu" non-epidemic of 1975-76.... of course I'm showing my age there.