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They've tried this twice before, actually. During independence between the end of the Russian Empire and the beginning of the Soviet Union, the republics of Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaidjan formed together the Transcaucasian Federation. But this lasted a very short time, and each country then became independent of this federation. Then, in the USSR, the three republics joined the USSR together again as the Transcaucasian Socialist Federated Soviet Republic. But by 1936, all three republics were independent again. So by virtue of history, I can't imagine any new such federation in the Caucasus. Each of the three republics once had much larger territories than they had now, and they're more interested in somehow reclaiming that, not joining together with anyone else.

Georgia readily and openly admits the American military is in Georgia to act as a deterrent against Russia. Whether Iran enters into the picture, that's more of a concern for the U.S. than Georgia, which has normal relations with Iran.

This is the flag of the Transcaucasian Federation, which was formed between Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaidjan. It lasted only from 1917 to 1918, however. The three republics never could get a functioning mutual government working. Armenia was the first republic to declare independence from the federation.
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Eric,

very interesting discussion. I appreciate you and others comments. I can learn a lot about this area. But I also like the newer flag better <img src="/images/graemlins/laugh.gif" alt="" />

Eric, thank you for the in-depth information. However, IMHO USA needed Russia's OK to put its military in Georgia. Since today the threat of China seizing Transcaucasia exists, a Federation may be needed to maintain independence. Carl

Fortunately, this is one topic I can actually give real answers in! <img src="/images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" />

I'm absolutely amazed at how many people, both in Georgia and in other countries, like the new flag! Really - I never expected it! For one thing, I never liked flags that are predominantely white - it makes it too difficult to look at. Second, the old flag has more to do with more recent Georgian history (XX century), but the old one goes back to the Middle Ages, and represents a part of the country's history I would have thought most people would like to forget about. Lastly, I don't think religion should exist on flags for countries, but the new Georgian flag is completely based on the religion.

I don't think China poses any threat for "seizing" the Caucasus region. For one thing, it's too far away! China is along the Pacific, and the Caucasus are between Europe and Asia. Even if it's just economic interests, the amount of oil there is enough to make the Americans put up an economic fight for it.

Anyway, twice in the past century a federation was tried, and both times it failed. Armenia and Georgia are Christian, but Azerbaidjan is Muslim. The countries just have different histories, different priorities.

And let's not forget more recent problems. There is still technically a war between Armenia and Azerbaidjan over territory. So it is impossible to put two warring countries into one larger country like that. Also, half of Georgian territory is trying to get independence.

So there is just no way a new Transcaucasian Federation could work. Think about it - if it couldn't even survive in a relatively stable (meaning free from outside influence) political environment as the Soviet Union, then how could it survive now?!

Times have changed. China might seize Transcaucasia to weaken Russia & India.

But how could it get there? China would have to cross Asia first?

At the moment, China and Russia are united in containing America, so it would be to China's detriment to weaken one of its allies. India is another of Russia's allies, so China won't want to do anything to harm India too much, either.

So, economically, China would benefit by a weak Russia. However, politically, China will suffer. So, Russia is out of the picture.

If China wants to make an economic killing, Japan and South Korea would be the viable ones to go after. However, the strength of their economies may make it too difficult to even try.

But the Caucasus, no, I can't possibly imagine that happening. It's like China trying to put a dent into Turkey... too far away geographically, not a vital interest of China ANYWAY, and not really worth it. The Caucasus is turning into a Russia/U.S. battleground. But not China.

That's today, but tomorrow China will have tremendous capacity for economic & political expansion, threatening Transcaucasia on the way to the Mideast.

Unfortunately, I still can't ever picturing this happening unless China conquers literally all of Asia first and is ready to move to Europe's doorstep!!