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http://serwisy.gazeta.pl/df/1,34471,2470687.html

It's so sad! I'm with 'em! How can the world
help Belarus? Will they have the same revolution as Ukraine had?

Analysis: Belarus defies West
By Leonid Ragozin
BBCRussian.com

President Aleksandr Lukashenko's regime in Belarus has long been a target of US criticism - and the Bush administration clearly has it on its radar.

The new US "outposts of tyranny" list presented by the incoming US Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, mentions just one European country - Belarus.

President Lukashenko, who maintains an iron Soviet-style grip on Belarus, hit back on Friday, saying "some might not want this sort of freedom which reeks of oil and is splattered with blood".

The strength of "people power" in neighbouring Ukraine has fuelled speculation that Belarus might go the same way.

But some experts are sceptical about such a scenario.

"Lukashenko obviously rigged the last (October 2004) referendum, but nevertheless, according to independent observers, he received almost 48% of the votes, which amounts to colossal support," says Russian political analyst Andrey Piontkovsky.

Crackdown on dissent

Mr Lukashenko has used his security forces against non-governmental organisations and the independent media. Demonstrations are often broken up brutally.

Several prominent politicians have disappeared.

Mr Lukashenko, in power since 1994, also disbanded an elected parliament, installing a hand-picked group of loyal deputies.

Angered by such authoritarian practices, the White House adopted the Belarus Democracy Act last year.

It provides for sanctions against Belarus and the promotion of democracy by helping non-governmental organisations and fostering an independent media.

It also bans US federal agencies from giving any financial aid to the country.

Radek Sikorski of the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington think-tank, says "small amounts of money could go a long way" to promote democracy in Belarus.

He advocates "Cold War-style activity" to effect change in Belarus, such as "broadcasting real information into the country, supporting underground newspapers".

Instead of visa restrictions, Belarussian officials accused of involvement in "disappearing" dissidents should be encouraged to visit the West and then arrested, he told the BBC News website.

Shunned by EU

Mr Lukashenko, often dubbed "Europe's last dictator", is also a major headache for the European Union, three of whose members - Poland, Lithuania and Latvia - share borders with it.

"I can't see a figure around which such a revolution could possibly develop."

Nationalism weak

Moreover, Belarus does not have much national identity around which a protest movement could coalesce, he says.

World War II largely destroyed the country's ethnic mix and nationalism was suppressed by the Soviet authorities.

Its once large Jewish population was largely exterminated by the Nazis, many Poles were deported by Stalin or fled and Belarussian identity was diluted by an influx of settlers from Russia.

In the long-term "a core of businessmen who are quite dissatisfied with the limitations imposed on the free development of private enterprise" could spearhead a revolt, Mr Dingley says.

But Mr Piontkovsky agrees that the prospects for a "velvet revolution" in the near future in Belarus "are not too rosy".

Russian influence

But Russia, which maintains close ties with Belarus, could play a significant role, analysts agree.

The US "can and should use President [Vladimir] Putin to put pressure on Lukashenko," says Mr Sikorski. "The regime couldn't survive a few weeks without Russian support."

Russia has been increasingly angered by Mr Lukashenko.

Russian newspapers speculated that he was aiming to become leader of a united state of Russia and Belarus - a country which has existed on paper since 1996.

But the leaderships disagree on key economic issues and relations with the West.

The Russian Foreign Ministry said in February 2004 that "the Belarus president is responsible for systematic mistakes in domestic and foreign policy, which hamper economic development and lead to the international isolation of Belarus".

But other former Soviet republics might be more ripe for regime change in the near future, analysts say.

"Kyrgyzstan and Moldova are the first candidates, followed by Armenia," says Mr Piontkovsky.

He also believes that Russia's President Putin is now on shakier ground than Mr Lukashenko.

And Ms Rice did not include in the "outposts of tyranny" list the Central Asian republics of Turkmenistan or Uzbekistan.

Opposition demonstrations do sometimes take place in Belarus - but not even that limited dissent is tolerated in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, where human rights abuses are widespread.

Story from BBC NEWS:

Who says Belarus NEEDS the West's "help"?

Doesn't a nation have the right to determine its future for itself anymore? Or does that only apply assuming the country is already pro-Western?

The vast majority of Belarussians I know living in Belarus really see no need to drop everything to join the West. Even though Belarus is largely isolated except for Russia and some other CIS countries, Belarus is also avoiding a lot of problems that have plagued transition countries. Unlike in much of the former USSR, terrorism just does not exist in Belarus. Salaries may be low, but many Soviet-era social securities still exist. Life is much more calm than in neighboring countries. The majority of people remain apolitical, as in old days, anyway, and so they really couldn't care less about Lukashenko's machinations, so long as the people are fed, clothed, work, and can go about their everyday lives without fear or worry.

Kajsa, John

thanks for the updates abour Belarus. It is sad what is there, it id onr of the last regimes in Europe.

Eric,

I guess, they mean by the "defying West" - not letting democratic forces to act in Belarus.
I am not sure that anybody really likes Lukashenko, even Putin.

Did you hear, that Putin is much less liked than before uin Russia, after the riots of elderly?

The action of the government to end Soviet-era benefits to the elderly, sick, etc., certainly was a big mistake. The aim - just trying to save money.

Unfortunately, those who were receiving the benefits are the least able to provide for themselves otherwise, and they desperately need all the assistance the government can give them. A free ride on the bus, for example, and free medication, is much more important to them than an extra couple of thousand rubles in their pension.

Especially for the elderly, it is particularly painful. They spent their whole lives working in the Soviet system, with the promise that they would have a retirement where the government would take care of them. First, they lost their government, and then the new one is trying to end its responsibility to take care of them. So, you can only imagine the grief of the old people. It's really as if they lived their lives for nothing - everything they did was just wasted. This is what the vast majority of people in Russia over the age of 50 or 60 think, and they are bitterly disappointed and upset.

Eric, the money is put in the hands of the wealthy. Similarly Bush is trying to reduce Social Security & Medicare benefits in USA. Carl

The massive de-centralization, criminal privitization, and horrible corruption of the 1990s certainly did put the all the wealth in the hands of a very small few.

So, Eric, please explain to me (again? no, you never did explain) why it is you think you would prefer to live in Russia.

Not that things are perfect here in the USA, but I do not understand your fantasy of being a Russian living in St. Petersburg. I once had a similar romantic fantasy of living in Ireland, but I was very young then - 19 or 20.

If you're going to work under the assumption that either...

- life in St Petersburg (or Russia in general) has got to be so miserable that no thinking person would want to live there, or

- life in the U.S. is about as good as it could possibly get...

...then I am not going to bother to explain my decisions with you. Those who respect me enough to understand my decisions already know why I am doing so.

Eric, I'm new to the forum, but could you tell me your decisions. I don't think life in the U.S. is the best, hell I want to leave the country and live in Poland someday.