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Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 6,577
Tiger
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Tiger
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 6,577
It is a fact, dollar became a weak currency. Why? Below are some reason. There is very little infomration in the USA press about it. Probably, because they do not want to scare the investors:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2926377.stm

&A: The dollar's destiny


As the conflict in Iraq has ebbed and flowed, so the dollar has fluctuated wildly. Even long before the war, the US currency was behaving distinctly erratically.
So what will happen to once-mighty greenback once the war comes to an end? BBC News Online reads the runes.

What has the war done to the value of the dollar?

It's made it see-saw like mad.

As the war approached, the greenback slid sharply, losing about 7% of its value against the euro between the beginning of the year and the middle of March.

When war started, the dollar gave a euphoric skip, gaining back in just a few days all the ground it had lost during the previous three months.

The euphoria soon ebbed, and with it the dollar.

But the solid military gains of the past few days look like spurring another, perhaps more sober, rally in the dollar.

Against the European single currency, the dollar is about 3% lower than where it began the year, but is creeping noticeably higher day by day.

Why should a brief conflict on the other side of the world do that to a currency?

Pundits often like to characterise a currency as an embodiment of national pride: when the world feels good about America, the markets feel good about the dollar.


But there are hard-nosed reasons underpinning the dollar's movements.

First, on a short-term basis, the dollar is heavily driven by swings on US stock markets, home to much of the capital that sweeps in and out of the country.

War is bad news for all but the most military of US corporations, something that led to an exodus of investment cash from Wall Street in the run-up to the Iraqi conflict - and a rush back into dollar-denominated investments when the war started to seem quickly winnable.

Second, the dollar is a global currency, just as much in demand in Moscow and Manila as in Minneapolis.

So there is a strong correlation between global economic performance and dollar strength; if a short war brings relief to a hard-pressed world economy, the dollar will benefit.

But wasn't the dollar weak already?

Pitifully so.

Traditionally, the dollar is a "strong" currency, just as the euro and yen are "weak" currencies.

But that established market fact has been turned on its head over the past year-and-a-bit.

The unnatural weakness of the US economy - reeling from September 11, the failure of the bubbly internet economy, and the recent rash of corporate scandals - has taken its toll on the dollar.

Against the euro, for example, it has lost 18% of its value in the past 12 months, a slump that has come close to eradicating all the relentless gains the dollar made over the preceding four years.

So will coalition victory bring the strong dollar back?

Probably not.

In the short term, currencies may be driven by the agony and the ecstasy of traders' sentiment - but the ultimate direction of exchange rates is set by global flows of hard cash.

And war or no war, the basic problem for fans of a strong dollar is that the US is an unstinting exporter of dollars.

Over the past five years, for example, the US has run up a cumulative trade deficit of $1.6 trillion.

This means Americans consumed $1.6 trillion more in goods and services than the US produced; to make up the difference, dollars had to be exported to producers overseas, who sell them to get the euros, yen or zloty that they actually need.

This imbalance, it seems, is a permanent state of affairs, or at least will remain so until enough of the rest of the world catches up with US standards of living, until US interest rates increase substantially, or until US exporters carve out a much bigger slice of global markets.

If the dollar stays weak, what does that mean for the rest of us?

Many in Brussels and beyond will be delighted to see the euro break back through the exchange rate it launched at in 1999.

But European firms have plenty to lose from the feeble dollar, notably diminishing competitiveness in the US, long one of their most dependable export markets.

So far, too, US firms have been somewhat unconvincing competitors in many international markets; a weaker dollar will be an opportunity to develop world-beating exports.

And the once free-spending American tourists who buoy the economies of London, Paris and a thousand other places will have yet another reason to stay at home.

Worst of all, when a currency as crucial as the dollar moves by 18% in a year, in whatever direction, that spells crushing economic uncertainty for companies and policy-makers all over the world.

Weakness or strength count for little; it's stability that economies really crave right now.

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Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 530
Gecko
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Gecko
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 530
Ela is so cute!!!

And by the Zloty, do mean the Polish currency? Is the Euro in Poland?

I wanted to tell you that there is a Polish girl in my Trigonometry class! She speaks only polish at her home!

It is very interesting <img src="/images/graemlins/laugh.gif" alt="" />


ladykadafi
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 2,046
E
Koala
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Koala
E
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 2,046
Quote:
Originally posted by Lawanda Kress:
[qb]And by the Zloty, do mean the Polish currency? Is the Euro in Poland?[/qb]
Yes, the zloty is the Polish currency. (In Polish, it's written with a line through the "L".)

Right now, Poland does not use the Euro. However, the caviat of all the nations joining the European Union, including Poland, is that it will be mandatory for them to start using the Euro; they aren't going to be given the choice. Only those countries that were in the EU when the Euro was introduced were allowed to choose, and only a couple said "no".


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